Sunday, January 20, 2008

Interesting Primary Statistic

Now that all of the pundits are talking about a long slog to the convention, people are starting to sit up and take notice of the delegate counts that candidates have. The entire process is kind of fuzzy, with committed delegates and superdelegates (played by Christopher Reeve, Brandon Routh, and the dude from Smallville).

I was looking at CNN's politics page after reading about Barack's backdoor victory in Nevada. When you add them all up, Hillary Clinton is about sixty delegates ahead, due to her early stockpiling of superdelegates.

Wait a minute, you say. What about the primaries? Hasn't she won two out of the three that have been held? Isn't that what would give her a lead?

Interestingly, when you add up the states that have had meaningful primaries (sorry, Michigan), Obama is up by one.

Iowa
Obama - 16 elected delegates, 2 superdelegates - 18 total
Clinton - 15 elected delegates, 3 superdelegates - 18 total

New Hampshire
Obama - 9 elected delegates, 3 superdelegates - 12 total
Clinton - 9 elected delegates, 2 superdelegates - 11 total

Nevada
Obama - 13 elected delegates, 1 superdelegate - 14 total
Clinton - 12 elected delegates, 2 superdelegates - 14 total

This is not, I would argue, the winner take all, Obama on the ropes picture that the media is trying to paint (Obama must win in South Carolina, they say). Nor, in retrospect, was the Clinton campaign on the ropes after Iowa. The only person quickly receding into the background is John Edwards, who hasn't won a delegate since Iowa and polled 4% in Nevada.

Now, could Super-Duper-Mega-Giga-Tsunami-Zeitgeist-Katrina-Tuesday-of-Destiny blow the race open for someone? It could, I suppose, especially if the same person takes New York and California by large margins. But Hillary's superdelegate lead comes almost exclusively from New York and New Jersey, so if Obama somehow manages to come out ahead in California and plays it close in New York, this could be one hell of a fight/brawl/battle/imagery invoking violence.

Haha! Cliché.

1 comment:

Yvonne said...

Your blog is called Jake and Susie *IN SPAIN*! Why are you talking about American politics?

You disappoint me. Start talking about Spain or I shall... I dunno, kick you when I see you guys again. Really hard.

Yeah, that's right.

<3,
Yvonne

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