Wednesday, February 6, 2008


I should be a pundit.

Last night I was listening to the returns on NPR and following an ABC News live blog, when I noticed something about Hillary's (at the time) 24% lead in my home state. St. Louis and Kansas City hadn't come in yet. The whole lead was outstate Missouri.

I'm normally not Mr. Blog Comment Man, but I did some writing last night on ABC's Political Wire, getting into a conversation with a gentleman named Paul...


Interesting results in Missouri. Clinton's lead includes 0% of St. Louis City and St. Louis County. Look for Obama to come storming back in the Show-Me State. The question is, will it be enough?

MObama? We'll see...
Posted by: Jake | Feb 5, 2008 9:47:36 PM


Paul in MD (and Rick),

Look at Missouri more closely. All of the Democrats in the state are concentrated in KC and St. Louis, and they're not reporting too much.

Jackson County (KC) - 12% reporting, but going for Obama
St. Louis City - 0% reporting, expected to go at least 2:1 for Obama
St. Louis County - 3% reporting, breaking 60/40-ish for Obama.

St. Louis City essentially has NO REPUBLICANS. Don't judge results by the central counties. Don't prognosticate- SHOW ME!
Posted by: Jake | Feb 5, 2008 10:16:52 PM



Don't know about proportional by congressional district in Missouri. But if so, the margins are close enough outstate that they'll be split evenly. Obama is KILLING IT in St. Louis City & County.

St. Louis City is now over 70/30 for Obama (30% reporting), 55/40 in St. Louis County (15%). KC continues to break Obama. Starting to count STL cut Clinton's lead from 21% to 14% very quickly.

SHOW ME some more results!
Posted by: Jake | Feb 5, 2008 10:35:44 PM


Paul, the big thing to watch is St. Louis City. 71/25 with 31% reporting. Yes, there are only 33% of the precincts left, but they're in Obama strongholds. If Hillary wins (and she might), it will be narrow. Less than 9% for sure, I think within 3% regardless of the winner.

KC and St. Louis County continue to be strong Obama, but St. Louis City could win it.
Posted by: Jake | Feb 5, 2008 10:55:53 PM


NPR - Colorado for Obama.

Missouri down to Clinton +4

Now we have CObama. Will we see MObama?
Posted by: Jake | Feb 5, 2008 11:13:36 PM


Missouri - Almost all of the outstate vote is in.

Hillary leaning counties still outstanding (Franklin, Jefferson, & Benton).
Almost certainly Clinton, but no reports (Johnson & Douglas)
Obama oustanding (St. Louis City, St. Louis County, Jackson County, Boone County)

NPR just called Missouri for Clinton, but I think it's going to be tight. Outstanding counties clearly favor Obama, just maybe too little too late.
Posted by: Jake | Feb 5, 2008 11:29:50 PM


What did I tell you, Paul? Let's hear it for the STL.
Posted by: Jake | Feb 5, 2008 11:49:43 PM


Obama down one half of one percent in Missouri with 96% reporting!
Posted by: Jake | Feb 6, 2008 12:08:57 AM


Posted by: Jake | Feb 6, 2008 12:14:34 AM

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