Monday, February 4, 2008

Ten Reasons

Like I said, I have no idea what's going to happen in Super Tuesday. I'm cautiously optimistic for Obama, but who the hell knows?

So, here's ten reasons why Obama will emerge victorious in twenty four hours, followed by ten more why Hillary will come out ahead.

  1. Momentum has clearly swung in Obama's favor. Tracking polls show narrowing/closed gaps across the board.
  2. People like Obama as they are exposed to him. Hillary, on the other hand, seems to have a ceiling of support.
  3. Obama's victory criteria are lower than Clinton's. The remainder of February is very favorable for the Obama camp.
  4. CNN gave Obama his first national lead today.
  5. Obama leads Missouri, a microcosm of America if ever there was one.
  6. David Plouffe's press release seems to imply Obama is feeling optimistic.
  7. People who are undecided on election day traditionally break 2:1 against the incumbent, which is clearly Hillary in this case.
  8. Obama is trying to win smaller states (e.g. Idaho) by large margins to rack up delegates. The strategy seems to be working.
  9. Proportional voting is a funny thing. This is a delegate race, not a beauty contest. You need big margins to win extra delegates. The margins no longer seem to exist.
  10. That $32 million didn't come from nowhere.
  1. Obama has narrowed the gap, but not closed it, according to many polls.
  2. New Hampshire polling was a disaster. Everything else should be taken with a grain of salt.
  3. Hillary cried again.
  4. The Clinton Machine got Bill elected twice. It's had practice.
  5. Though best case polling has Obama pulling off a miracle upset, worst case polling has him getting buried.
  6. Obama depends heavily on the youth vote, a notoriously finicky group that has shown up so far, but tomorrow's another day.
  7. Obama depends on independents, who cannot vote in several primaries tomorrow.
  8. If Obama misses Plouffe's point spread, it's a loss by his own definition. Can't spin that one.
  9. This is a race that depends on the storyline the press wants to pursue. What if Clinton is slightly ahead? Clinton Wins? Obama Disappoints? Obama Beats Expectations?
  10. Presidential candidates I've voted for are a collective 0-3 (Gore, Dean, & Kerry).
I'm just nervous, that's all. Maybe I'll live blog the results tomorrow.

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