So, here's ten reasons why Obama will emerge victorious in twenty four hours, followed by ten more why Hillary will come out ahead.
Obama
- Momentum has clearly swung in Obama's favor. Tracking polls show narrowing/closed gaps across the board.
- People like Obama as they are exposed to him. Hillary, on the other hand, seems to have a ceiling of support.
- Obama's victory criteria are lower than Clinton's. The remainder of February is very favorable for the Obama camp.
- CNN gave Obama his first national lead today.
- Obama leads Missouri, a microcosm of America if ever there was one.
- David Plouffe's press release seems to imply Obama is feeling optimistic.
- People who are undecided on election day traditionally break 2:1 against the incumbent, which is clearly Hillary in this case.
- Obama is trying to win smaller states (e.g. Idaho) by large margins to rack up delegates. The strategy seems to be working.
- Proportional voting is a funny thing. This is a delegate race, not a beauty contest. You need big margins to win extra delegates. The margins no longer seem to exist.
- That $32 million didn't come from nowhere.
- Obama has narrowed the gap, but not closed it, according to many polls.
- New Hampshire polling was a disaster. Everything else should be taken with a grain of salt.
- Hillary cried again.
- The Clinton Machine got Bill elected twice. It's had practice.
- Though best case polling has Obama pulling off a miracle upset, worst case polling has him getting buried.
- Obama depends heavily on the youth vote, a notoriously finicky group that has shown up so far, but tomorrow's another day.
- Obama depends on independents, who cannot vote in several primaries tomorrow.
- If Obama misses Plouffe's point spread, it's a loss by his own definition. Can't spin that one.
- This is a race that depends on the storyline the press wants to pursue. What if Clinton is slightly ahead? Clinton Wins? Obama Disappoints? Obama Beats Expectations?
- Presidential candidates I've voted for are a collective 0-3 (Gore, Dean, & Kerry).
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